The Long Game | October 2026
A few months ago, we walked away from a property we genuinely wanted to own.
We liked the asset. We believed in its fundamentals. And we saw significant long-term potential.
But the combination of pricing, financing and execution risk didn't meet our investment requirements.
So we walked away.
Several months later, the opportunity returned at a meaningfully lower price.
Same property. Largely the same investment thesis. A better entry point.
You might assume that makes it a better investment.
But here's what makes today's real estate market so interesting:
The property got cheaper. The debt got more expensive.
And that changes everything.
A Lower Price Doesn't Always Mean a Better Deal
Real estate values don't exist in isolation. They're directly connected to the cost and availability of capital.
Consider a simplified example.
A property generating $2 million in annual net operating income (NOI) could support approximately $21.7 million in debt at a 6.25% interest rate.
Increase that rate to 6.75%, and borrowing capacity falls to approximately $20.6 million, assuming a 1.25x debt-service coverage ratio and 30-year amortization.
That's roughly $1.1 million less financing capacity, even though the property's income hasn't changed.
Now consider valuation.
At a 5.5% capitalization rate, that same $2 million NOI implies a property value of approximately $36.4 million.
At a 6% cap rate, its implied value falls to $33.3 million.
More than $3 million in value disappears without a single change to the property's operating income.
These are illustrative assumptions, but the principle matters.
Higher financing costs can reduce leverage, increase required equity and put pressure on investment returns.
That's why we don't evaluate a discount simply against yesterday's asking price.
We evaluate it against today's cost of capital and the returns we can reasonably expect to achieve.
The Next Wave of Opportunities May Come From Good Properties
For years, many property owners had the flexibility to avoid selling.
They could extend existing loans, refinance, or simply wait for more favorable market conditions.
That flexibility is becoming more limited for some borrowers.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, approximately $875 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgages is scheduled to mature in 2026, followed by another $652 billion in 2027.
Not every maturity will produce a distressed sale. Many owners will refinance, extend, inject additional equity or negotiate with lenders.
But the pressure is real.
Some properties that performed perfectly well under financing obtained several years ago may no longer support the same debt levels or valuations today.
And that creates an important distinction.
A property doesn't have to be distressed for its ownership structure to become stressed.
I believe some of the most attractive opportunities in this cycle could come from fundamentally sound properties whose capital structures were designed for a very different interest-rate environment.
Meanwhile, Houston's Fundamentals Are Improving
The interesting part is that this repricing is happening while portions of the underlying apartment market are showing signs of recovery.
According to Colliers, Houston absorbed 7,008 apartment units during the second quarter of 2026, exceeding its five-year Q2 average by 15.5%.
At the same time, the number of units under construction declined 29.3% year over year.
Northmarq reported a 40-basis-point decline in vacancy during the quarter, the largest quarterly improvement in nearly five years.
Those are encouraging developments.
But we shouldn't confuse a recovering market with a rising tide that lifts every property equally.
Much of Houston's recent absorption has been concentrated in Class A properties. Rent growth in Class B and C communities remains considerably more subdued.
For workforce housing, sustainable performance still comes down to the fundamentals: resident retention, collections, expense management, and the ability to operate efficiently.
The market can create the opportunity. Operations have to deliver the returns.
One Number I'm Watching: 5.34%
On October 1, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.34%, its highest level since 2002.
That's a significant development for commercial real estate.
The 10-year Treasury is an important benchmark for long-term fixed-rate financing. Its movements can influence the cost of borrowing, the returns investors demand, and ultimately the prices buyers can justify.
But it isn't just the level of interest rates that matters.
It's how quickly they can change.
A deal that works at one financing rate may look materially different only weeks later. That requires us to revisit our assumptions continuously, even on investments we've already spent months evaluating.
What I won't do is build an investment thesis around the hope that interest rates will rescue the transaction.
Rates may eventually decline. If they do, that could create meaningful upside.
But lower future interest rates should be an opportunity, not a requirement for success.
We have to make investment decisions based on the financing environment we can actually secure, with enough margin for error to withstand conditions that don't go according to plan.
The Long Game
At Rockfish, we continue to evaluate opportunities across Texas, including properties we've previously considered and decided not to pursue.
Some may return at attractive enough terms to justify another look. Others may never make sense, regardless of how far their asking prices decline.
The challenge is separating one from the other.
I don't believe successful investing is about predicting the exact bottom of a market or getting every decision right the first time.
It's about remaining disciplined, protecting capital, and being willing to change your assessment when the facts change.
Because conviction in a market doesn't mean conviction in every transaction.
And sometimes, the investment you walked away from becomes worth reconsidering.
Discipline isn't only having the courage to say no. It's staying close enough to an opportunity, and doing enough work, to recognize when the answer should become yes.
That's the long game.
Sven Kueenle
Founder & CEO | Rockfish Capital Partners









